Macro, rates, housing and agency MBS research written for fixed-income desks, led by the Monthly Macro Update.
THE MONTHLY MACRO UPDATE · LATEST EDITION
Duration rallied hard even as oil surged and the Fed stayed priced to hike. The 10Y fell 35bp to 4.94%, almost all of it through real yields. Equities rotated rather than collapsed: the S&P 500 slipped 0.9% while the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.7% and nine of eleven sectors rose. Credit…
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Duration rallied hard even as oil surged and the Fed stayed priced to hike. The 10Y fell 35bp to 4.94%, almost all of it through real yields. Equities rotated rather than collapsed: the S&P 500 slipped 0.9% while the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.7% and nine of eleven sectors rose. Credit…
Read →The Fed held at 3.75-4.00% on October 28, 2026, after September's 25bp hike. Both dissents wanted a hike: Governor Cook and Cleveland's Hammack, for a 10-2 vote. The statement upgraded growth to "strong" and swapped September's hike rationale for data-dependence: a pause with…
Read →Wednesday is priced as a hold: 90% on 3.75-4.00%, 10% on a hike, nothing on a cut. December is where the hike sits, at 83%, in line with the September dots. The gap with the Fed opens in 2027: about 70bp of tightening is priced by end-2027, above every 2027 dot. Leadership…
Read →Core CPI beat consensus, rising 0.335% m/m against a 0.2% median and lifting core YoY to 2.56%. Energy drove the 0.65% headline: gasoline rose 9.1%, and 3.74% YoY topped the 3.6% call. Core strength was broad, with shelter up 0.39% and airfares, lodging and used cars firm.…
Read →The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and the market priced a cycle, not a one-off. The 10Y rose 54bp to 5.29%, with real yields doing almost all of it while breakevens added 5bp despite the Iran-war oil spike. The long end kept selling after oil peaked mid-month. A…
Read →A hot growth print and a hawkish Fed voice drove a real-rate selloff. The 10Y rose 16bp to 5.17% and 2s10s steepened 11bp to 36bp, with the 10Y real yield doing 15bp of it. Wednesday's flash PMI beat and Governor Barr's call for more hikes did most of the damage; a weak 5-year…
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Speeds by coupon, WALA, loan size and cohort, with month-over-month changes.
Gross and net issuance across Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie by coupon and program.
Buyer-base shifts across banks, dealers, funds, REITs and overseas accounts.
Bank demand by institution type and hedge stance, and what it means for coupons.
Early-stage and serious delinquencies across agency cohorts and vintages.